We have overhauled the way population and housing
projections are modelled
for the Taupō District.
Previous growth rates were based on StatsNZ projections which consistently under-estimated population growth in the Taupō District.
Over 2022, Taupō District Council developed its own model to produce a range of likely growth projections. Census data and a set of key assumptions, outlined in the drop-down section below, form the basis of the model.
Growth projections through to 2060 are illustrated in our growth model infographics snapshot for the Taupō District, Taupō township, Tūrangi and several other areas across the district.
We use information on resource consents to project the number of new residential houses expected to be built in Taupō.
Resource consent applications provide information on future housing developments in the Taupō District.
Information on the number of building plots and when they are planned to be built is extracted from these consents and used to produce projections on the number and location of new residential houses up to 2060.
These projections are supplemented by estimates on the number of infill subdivisions expected in the district.
These projections represent the supply of residential housing in the Taupō District.
Our growth projections represent a range of plausible futures based on the best available information and expert advice.
Any model that attempts to project into the future will inevitably prove to be inaccurate. Growth projections depend on several drivers that are subject to some level of uncertainty, e.g. net migration projections are highly uncertain but have a large impact on population growth.
Having a range of plausible projections and an understanding of the risk associated with them allows the user to take appropriate measures to mitigate this risk.
Taupō District Council endeavours to review these projections on an annual basis to have the most up-to-date projections.
Taupō is growing in most areas but the demographic profile of its residents is changing. Houses need to be built with the right typology to meet changing needs.
Population in the district has grown by 1.5% per year in the last decade. This rate slowed due to Covid related border closures. This growth rate translates to around 200 new households coming to live in Taupō every year.
The pace of housing construction has met the larger part of this demand but it did not keep up with the peak observed in 2016-2020.
Demand for new housing is expected to slow but housing construction will need to keep up with current and unmet demand.
In addition, newly built houses need to be of a typology to meet changing housing needs in-line with demographic changes such as more one or two bedroom houses.
The data provided by Taupō District Council is made available in good faith and for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any other purpose.
Taupō District Council makes no warranty, express or implied, nor assumes any legal liability or responsibility for accuracy, correctness or completeness of the data.
The information should not be used as a substitute for professional advice and if you act or rely on the information provided, you do so at your own risk.
Accordingly, Taupō District Council is not responsible or liable for direct or indirect losses or damage as a result of accessing the information or any reliance placed on the accuracy or completeness of the information by you or any other party.
Taupō District Council may change or update the data at any time, without notice to the user.